Chapter 7: Security
by Brian Gitt
Gas wins | Runner up: Nuclear
Natural gas provides the US with the best energy security of the alternatives shown in the table from Chapter 6 because the US has enormous reserves of natural gas within its borders. Recall that the less a country’s energy system relies on foreign imports, the more secure that energy system is. Current events in Europe provide a timely illustration of this principle. The security of many European nations, such as Germany, was compromised by their dependence on Russian gas. France’s energy system, by contrast, has remained relatively secure as France gets 63% of its electricity from nuclear power.
With its large reserve of natural gas, the US is, in fact, the largest producer of natural gas in the world. About 38% of US electricity is currently generated by natural gas, while 19% comes from nuclear power, 9% by wind, and 4% by solar. As a result, the US produces most of its natural gas, has adequate reserves, and depends less on foreign nations to supply it with natural gas.
Nuclear—both large and small—is a close second for the US in terms of security. Nuclear has the highest energy density of any energy source, which allows a large amount of nuclear fuel to be stored in a small amount of space. Consequently, a country like the US can store enough nuclear fuel within its borders to last for decades.
The high energy density of nuclear fuel could make it the most secure energy source for the US over the long term. There’s only one hitch: nuclear fuel is made from uranium, and even though the US used to lead the world in uranium production, during the last decade, it has outsourced uranium production to other countries, as illustrated in the second image in this chapter.
The federal government is now changing course and investing once again in domestic nuclear fuel production, but it will take at least a decade to build back capacity. As a result, natural gas provides greater energy security for the foreseeable future.
But nuclear energy provides the greatest energy security for the US over the long term. US natural gas supplies are abundant but finite, and several major US natural gas fields have already peaked. As a result, the US will eventually be forced to depend more on imported gas.
Electricity production data source: Our World In Data
By contrast, nuclear fuel can be recycled. Spent nuclear fuel retains more than 95% of its potential energy, which can be harnessed by small nuclear reactors because of their advanced design. There are about 85,000 metric tonnes of spent fuel from large nuclear plants in the US. That’s enough nuclear fuel to power the US for 150 years. Plus uranium supplies are abundant, so over the long term, the US can store large amounts of nuclear fuel within its borders and be less reliant on foreign countries.
Both nuclear power and natural gas are more secure energy options for the US than either wind or solar. The reason is that China dominates the refining and processing of key metals used to make solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries. It controls every single supply chain segment for solar panels: 97% of wafers, 85% of cells, 79% of polysilicon, and 75% of modules. The US, by contrast, currently has no manufacturing plants that make solar ingots or wafers. And China has delayed US attempts to build up a domestic solar supply chain by placing export controls on solar manufacturing technologies.
Uranium production data source: EIA
What’s true of solar panels is also true of wind turbines and batteries: China takes up ten spots on the list of the world’s top fifteen wind turbine manufacturers. It controls 99% of the world’s production of the rare earth metals used to make the magnets in wind turbines, 75% of the world’s battery cell fabrication capacity, and 85% of the rare earth refining capacity needed to make batteries.
Any country that depends on solar and wind power depends on China. That dependence compromises a country’s energy security in the way that dependence on Russian gas has compromised the energy security of European countries like Germany. That’s why when it comes to US energy security, nuclear and natural gas are the clear winners.